Home > Health Care Policy > Supreme Court Scenarios on Healthcare Reform Law Vote

Supreme Court Scenarios on Healthcare Reform Law Vote

In June 2012, the U.S. Supreme Court will rule on whether to uphold P.L. 111-148 (Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act) or not. Here are some scenarios for how the vote could go down.

1) The current balance of the court is 5 democrats to 4 republicans. If they vote party lines (95% chance they will), then P.L. 111-148 will be upheld as constitutional.

2) Justice Thomas (conservative) and Justice Kagan (liberal) might recuse themselves due to potential conflict of interest. If both recuse themselves, the balance will shift to 4 democrats and 3 republicans.

3) If Justice Kagan recuses herself, this would create a tie-scenario. In the event of a tie, the lower court’s ruling on the matter currently being considered would automatically be upheld without comment.

It will be very interesting to see what happens in June.

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